When the smoke (literally) cleared over Puerto Vallarta, Guadalajara, and other parts of Mexico last week, following the dramatic and violent response to the February 22 killing of the cartel boss Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes (aka “El Mencho”), there were a few distinct reactions from travelers. Some immediately canceled upcoming trips; on the opposite end of the spectrum, some went looking for deals; and the many in between began wringing their hands over whether to stick with spring break and summer vacation plans south of the border.
While no one has a crystal ball that will reveal future risks to indecisive travelers, there is one important thing to note: Despite the unprecedented explosions, blockades, and fires in the heart of Puerto Vallarta and other cities across the country, no tourists were hurt. The lack of civilian casualties underscores what security experts have long concluded about the safety of traveling in Mexico: The cartels are not interested in abducting or hurting tourists.
Unfortunately, that doesn’t guarantee travelers won’t be affected. Nor does it make it any less scary to be in a place where unrest unfolds, as it did in Mexico last month. In Puerto Vallarta, for instance, thousands of travelers were stranded when flights were halted—some having to go with limited food and supplies during shelter-in-place warnings.
Since then, life has largely gone back to normal across the country, according to Nick Philipps Jones, director of intelligence and investigations at the Mexico-based business intelligence firm Sargasso Group. He said that travel is safe across Mexico’s popular resort areas, particularly for tourists staying at large hotels and all-inclusive properties, which he said offer a secure bubble.
“Everything seems to be fairly stable now,” Philipps Jones said. “They’ve sent in extra security forces to these locations, particularly around Puerto Vallarta and Jalisco.”
The big question is, will it remain that way?
“Who knows?” Philipps Jones said. “It’s really too early to tell. We have to see if anything happens that will create weaknesses for other cartels to exploit. But at the moment, we’re not seeing that. What we’re seeing is an initial big show of force, which was really a sign to back off, to say ‘We’re still in control.’ It’s just a wait-and-see game now.”
Since the cartels operate across the entire country and beyond, caution, as always, is key. Here’s what the U.S. Department of State, Mexico experts, and travel advisors say about the current state of travel to tourism hot spots.
Puerto Vallarta
The U.S. Department of State has categorized the state of Jalisco (where Puerto Vallarta is located) with a Level 3 travel advisory, which urges people to “reconsider travel” there. While Phillips Jones said he believes Puerto Vallarta is safe for tourists right now, many are still hesitant. Residents and tourists in the “Puerto Vallarta Experience Share” Facebook group report things are quieter than normal for this time of year and that people renting out condos and houses are seeing a lot of cancellations. Travel advisor Nate Vallier, a partner at the Alaska Travel Desk agency in Juneau and Skagway, said he has lost all of his Mexico bookings for upcoming weeks: “It’s not just the Mexican Riviera affected, but I had three families cancel trips to Cabo San Lucas and two others cancel trips to the Yucatán.” Travelers with a higher risk tolerance are likely to find some deals in Jalisco, especially in the short-term.
Cancún, Riviera Maya, and Tulum
These popular resort destinations in the state of Quintana Roo, on Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula, were among areas where tourists were initially warned to shelter in place as the cartel set off explosions and created roadblocks with burning vehicles across some 20 states in February. But they have since been returned to a Level 2 on the State Department alert scale, meaning travelers are urged to “exercise increased caution.” Travel advisor Amy Handel-Lawson, who specializes in all-inclusive resorts in Quintana Roo and the Caribbean, said that while she has had calls from people wondering about safety, she hasn’t had any cancellations. Some people, she added, have called in hopes of getting a good deal, but one of the major all-inclusive tour operators in Mexico, ALG Vacations, had already been offering great deals in the area before the violence, so vacation packages were booking up. “What I think is happening is people are then going to go to Cancún or Cabo or Punta Cana [in the Dominican Republic] instead of Puerto Vallarta,” she said, “so there’s not going to be any deals [in those destinations], because I feel like the space is going to be gone.”
Riviera Nayarit
Just north of Puerto Vallarta, the state of Nayarit—home to the newer, mostly ultra-luxe resorts of Punta Mita and the funky surf towns of Sayulita and San Pancho—is now ranked Level 2 by the State Department. To get to the Riviera Nayarit, however, tourists have to fly into Puerto Vallarta (currently a Level 3 zone) and drive through the jungle for about an hour.
Mazatlán, Puerto Penasco, and San Carlos
Mazatlan, in the state of Sinaloa, on the Pacific coast north of Puerto Vallarta and Nayarit, is among the few beach destinations in areas the State Department has marked Level 4—that is, “do not travel.” Further north, the border state of Sonora has been deemed a Level 3 for travel risk. Popular beach vacation spots here, on the eastern coast of the Sea of Cortez, include Puerto Peñasco and San Carlos, which are mostly driving destinations for travelers from Arizona, Utah, and New Mexico. Phillips Jones said driving into Mexico “is mostly, I think, pretty safe,” although there have been incidents where tourists have gotten caught up in shootouts between cartels and security forces or were the victims of mistaken identity. The best policy, as always, is to be be cautious and keep an eye on the news before traveling.
Guadalajara and San Miguel de Allende
The inland cities of Guadalajara and San Miguel de Allende are in the states of Jalisco and Guanajuato, respectively, which are both under Level 3 advisories, urging Americans to reconsider travel. But, again, as Phillips Jones emphasized, tourists have never been targeted by the cartels. In fact, G Adventures reported that one of their tour groups was on a bus from Guadalajara to Puerto Vallarta the day of the uprising. Their vehicle was stopped and set on fire to be used as a roadblock, but everyone onboard was first evacuated, and all were left unharmed.
Los Cabos and Loreto
The resort area of Los Cabos—which includes Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo—along with the quaint coastal town of Loreto to the north, are all in the state of Baja California Sur, which, much like the Riviera Maya, is at Level 2. Vallier said that while he is not yet ready to start sending his American and Canadian clients back to Puerto Vallarta, “areas like Cabo San Lucas, Cancún, and Tulum are fairly safe, and [travelers] should find a very welcoming environment.”
Mexico City
According to Philipps Jones, Mexico City, the capital of Mexico and the most populous metropolis in North America, has long been largely immune to cartel violence. “That’s the bubble of all bubbles,” he said. “I’ve lived there for 20 years and not felt in any way unsafe. There is cartel activity around the fringes, but it’s not going to be noticeable, and all of the tourism goes on around the central historic and Roma neighborhoods, and they’re incredibly safe.”
