This story was first published in October 2023 and was updated on October 22, 2026, to include current information.
For anyone still searching for flights for the holidays, the temptation to wait for a better price can be hard to resist. Book today, and you might watch the fare drop $100 next week. Hold out too long, however, and that convenient nonstop could disappear, leaving you with a more expensive ticket, an inconvenient layover, or both.
The stakes are especially high this year. According to NerdWallet’s latest Travel Price Index, U.S. airfares were up 22.4 percent in September compared with the same month last year. Meanwhile, Hopper’s 2026 Holiday Travel Index found that domestic round-trip Thanksgiving flights were averaging $402 in late September, up 31 percent from 2025, while Christmas fares averaged $452, a 23 percent increase.
Those rising prices appear to be influencing Americans’ holiday plans. According to NerdWallet’s 2026 Holiday Spending Report, 31 percent of Americans aren’t planning to purchase flights or hotels for holiday travel this year, compared with 22 percent at the same point last year.
For those still planning to fly, the question is whether to swallow today’s fares or gamble on a price drop. Recent analyses from online booking platforms Google Flights, Kayak, Hopper, and Going identify different booking windows, with some historical data suggesting fares could still fall in the coming weeks. Yet all four companies advise against waiting too long. As two travel experts told Afar, making a smart purchase goes beyond pinpointing the perfect booking date. Here’s how to make sense of it and to decide whether it’s worth waiting to buy a flight.
When is the cheapest time to book Thanksgiving and Christmas flights?
According to Google Flights’ October 5 analysis, which examined five years of airfare data, Thanksgiving flights have historically been cheapest an average of 34 days before departure, with a broader low-price window of 21 to 57 days out. For Christmas, the sweet spot comes earlier, at 56 days before departure, with a low-price window of 33 to 67 days.
Kayak’s 2026 Holiday Travel report reaches a similar conclusion for Thanksgiving, finding that fares have historically bottomed out about five weeks before the holiday, which falls during the week of October 19 this year. For Christmas, it identifies a somewhat later window than Google does, with prices typically dipping four to seven weeks before departure.
“Waiting a few weeks could save you money; waiting until the last minute probably won’t,” Kayla DeLoache, Kayak’s travel trends expert, said in a press release.
Hopper, meanwhile, recommends booking both Thanksgiving and Christmas flights before Halloween, warning that prices could climb as departure dates approach and flights fill up. Going’s recent holiday outlook offers similar advice. “The sooner you book, the better position you’re in,” Going flight expert Willis Orlando stated in the report.
Part of the discrepancy comes down to methodology. Google analyzed five years of aggregated flight-price data to identify historical low-price windows. Meanwhile, Kayak compared round-trip economy airfares from searches for flights during the Thanksgiving and Christmas travel periods departing from U.S. airports in 2025 and 2026. Hopper’s recommendations came from analyzing fares for Thanksgiving and Christmas travel during a single week leading up to its September 25 report (its recommendation to book before Halloween reflects an expectation that prices will climb as the holidays approach), while Going compared advertised prices in late September 2026 with those from the same period last year. Those different approaches don’t necessarily produce the same recommendations.
The sooner you book, the better position you’re in.
But Brett Snyder, founder of the aviation industry blog Cranky Flier and travel service Cranky Concierge, cautions against putting too much stock in any of these predictions, particularly with fuel prices substantially higher than last year.
“Everyone loves to try to predict when fares will be higher or lower, but none of them really know,” he told Afar. “You will drive yourself insane trying to find the perfect time to buy.”
After all, airlines aren’t obligated to lower prices simply because a historical booking window has arrived. Their revenue management teams continually adjust fares to maximize revenue, and Snyder says significant discounts are unlikely on peak holiday travel days.
Sally French, a travel expert at NerdWallet and cohost of the Smart Travel podcast, agrees that historical averages are only so useful in predicting individual fares, especially during an unusually expensive year. She generally recommends booking domestic flights one to three months in advance rather than counting on a last-minute bargain.
Who should book now, and who can afford to wait
For travelers with fixed dates, both experts recommend booking sooner rather than later.
“Our rule of thumb is that if you need to get somewhere—whether that’s the holidays, or something else like a wedding or sports meet—go ahead and book the flight now, assuming it’s a price that you’d ultimately be okay with paying,” French said.
Snyder agrees, and takes an even firmer stance against waiting. “I don’t suggest anyone gamble on that,” he said. “If you have a trip you know you need to take, why play games?”
That’s particularly relevant for families who need several seats on the same flight, travelers flying from smaller airports with limited service, and anyone trying to depart the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and return the following Sunday, traditionally among the busiest travel days of the season, if not the entire year.
Everyone loves to try to predict when fares will be higher or lower. . . . You will drive yourself insane trying to find the perfect time to buy.
Travelers who can shift their dates, choose among several airports, or tolerate a connection have more options. But both experts caution against sacrificing convenience simply to save a few dollars.
“Competition certainly has an impact on fares, but fares are only a small part of this,” Snyder said. A cheaper ticket might not be worth several additional hours in the car or a lengthy layover that cuts into time with family.
French also recommends paying attention to connections, particularly during the winter months when weather disruptions can quickly derail an itinerary. “Tight layovers are risky—but even long layovers are riskier than no layover at all,” she said. “If I can avoid a layover, I almost always book direct, even if it costs more.”
How to save money if you haven’t booked yet
For travelers unhappy with current fares, changing when they fly may be more effective than changing when they book.
According to Hopper, Sunday, November 29, is expected to be one of the most expensive days to fly this holiday season. Domestic round-trip itineraries returning that day were averaging $604 when Hopper compiled its report, compared with approximately $350 for flights returning the following Monday or Tuesday. Departing on Monday, November 23, or Thanksgiving Day itself could also yield savings compared with flying the Wednesday before the holiday.
For Christmas, Going identified December 24 as one of the cheapest departure dates, while Hopper found better values for travelers leaving December 21 or 22 rather than the preceding weekend.
Even shifting a trip by one day can make a substantial difference. As French points out, saving $200 per ticket translates to $1,000 for a family of five.
She also recommends comparing nearby airports. When visiting family in Orange County, California, French typically prefers John Wayne Airport in Santa Ana (SNA) but checks fares from Long Beach (LGB) and Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), too. Depending on the savings, she’ll even consider Ontario (ONT), Hollywood Burbank (BUR), or San Diego (SAN). Just remember to factor in the additional cost and time required to reach a more distant airport.
Also, try looking at two one-way flights. Flight aggregators, such as Google Flights, will display only round-trip flights from a single airline or two one-way flights from partner airlines. For example, Google Flights might suggest an itinerary for which the outbound flight is on Alaska Airlines and the return is on American Airlines because they are both part of the oneworld Alliance. However, it won’t provide an itinerary that combines Delta and United because they are competitors. Try booking your trip separately on different airlines to see if you can find a cheaper overall price.
And if you have a stash of frequent flier miles, it’s worth comparing award prices with cash fares. Tools such as Points Path, which displays award prices alongside cash fares in Google Flights, can help you determine which offers better value. When last-minute cash prices are high, you often can get the best redemption value for points and miles.
What if you book now and the price drops later?
Fortunately, buying a ticket now doesn’t necessarily mean giving up the chance to save if fares fall.
French recommends booking a ticket that allows changes without a substantial penalty. Many airlines allow travelers to rebook eligible standard economy tickets at a lower price and receive the difference as a credit toward future travel.
For example, if you purchase a $600 ticket and the same flight drops to $450, you may be able to rebook it and receive a $150 airline credit. The catch is that the savings generally aren’t returned as cash, and credits may expire before you have another opportunity to use them.
Rules vary by airline and fare class. Basic economy tickets often can’t be changed, while some budget airlines charge fees that can erase the potential savings. Southwest, for example, allows travelers who cancel eligible Basic fares to receive flight credits that generally expire six months from the original booking date, while credits from its more expensive fare classes typically remain valid for 12 months.
Once you’ve booked, French suggests setting a price alert for the exact itinerary. Google Flights offers free alerts, while Going’s Price Drop feature monitors already-booked flights for eligible members and notifies them when fares fall by at least 10 percent. Travelers still need to follow their airline’s rebooking rules to claim any savings.
There’s no guarantee prices will fall, of course, but this approach offers a way to secure a desirable itinerary while preserving the possibility of saving later.
For travelers still debating whether to pull the trigger, Snyder’s advice is considerably simpler: Find a flight that works for your schedule, make sure you’re comfortable with the price, and buy it.
“Then move on with your life, and you’ll be much happier,” he said.
