As the war in the Middle East continues, airlines around the world have been rapidly redrawing their flight maps. They are avoiding large swaths of Middle Eastern airspace and rerouting long-haul flights that normally pass through one of aviation’s most important crossroads; in some cases, they have been forced to cancel service altogether as conditions change on the ground.
The airspace closures add another major gap to an already fragmented map of global skies. Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, much of that region’s airspace has been off-limits to international airlines. Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict in Israel and Gaza has also periodically restricted flights across parts of the Eastern Mediterranean. Now, with Iranian airspace and neighboring countries and regions becoming increasingly risky or restricted, airlines flying between Europe, Asia, and Australia are left with fewer safe and available corridors to cross Eurasia.
Complicating matters further, some airports in the region, including Dubai International Airport (DXB) and Doha’s Hamad International Airport (DOH) in Qatar, have at times temporarily halted operations since the conflict began on February 28; they’ve had to pause arrivals and departures during periods of heightened military activity or security threats. Those shutdowns, even when brief, trigger cascading delays across airline networks.
Taken together, the closures are forcing airlines to rethink routes that, until recently, formed a critical backbone of global long-haul travel.
And those disruptions can stretch far beyond the region itself.
Why Middle Eastern hubs matter so much to global travel
In normal times, the skies over the Persian Gulf and surrounding countries function as a major bridge between continents. Flights traveling between Europe and Asia often pass over Iran or nearby airspace. Major hubs such as Dubai’s DXB and Abu Dhabi’s Zayed International Airport (AUH) in the United Arab Emirates, and Doha’s Hamad International in Qatar act as a layover point for millions of travelers. (In 2025, DXB saw 95.2 million passengers, while DOH saw 54.3 million and AUH saw 33 million.)
The impact is especially significant because Middle Eastern airlines have become central to the global aviation network.
“Over the last 30 years, the airlines based in the Middle East have created purpose-built airlines and hubs to connect the world,” Mike Arnot, an aviation industry consultant, told Afar. “They turned their cities into business and leisure destinations, but more importantly for world travelers, [into] critical connect points.”
Arnot added, “If you are in Dallas, Texas, and want to get to Bangalore, India, one of the airlines in the Middle East will be an option for you. Now, if the hubs in the Middle East are disrupted, you’re competing for seats [on alternate routes] with everyone else.”
Data from aviation analytics company Cirium underscores just how dominant those carriers have become. For flights originating in Europe and ending in Asia, Emirates and Etihad Airways, the two flag carriers of the United Arab Emirates, together with Qatar Airways, represent more than 32 percent of the market share—a figure that rises to about 45 percent when Turkish Airlines is included.
For flights between Europe and Australasia, that trio of Middle Eastern airlines accounts for nearly 57 percent of passenger traffic (or just over 61 percent when Turkish Airlines is counted). According to the International Air Transport Association, 227 million people flew through the region in 2025.
That means air travel disruptions in the Middle East can have gargantuan effects on the global aviation system. Since the beginning of the conflict on February 28, Cirium data shows that more than 60,000 flights to and from the Middle East have been canceled, affecting an estimated 6 million passengers directly.
Why airlines can’t always reroute
When conflict erupts in a region, airlines can’t simply draw a new line on the map.“This is because airlines fly a route, but in advance of the route, also plot out the airports where, if there was some sort of emergency, they could divert,” Arnot said. “Those diversion points need to be within a certain flying time away, if, for example, an aircraft lost use of one engine.”
Those airports must have long enough runways, adequate services, and—crucially—be located somewhere safe, “not in a war zone,” he noted.
When large areas of airspace suddenly become unsafe, those carefully designed networks can unravel quickly. According to Safe Airspace, a website that maintains a database of all airspace risk warnings, countries that are currently Level 1 “do not fly zones” are Iran, Russia, Ukraine, Syria, Yemen, Libya, and Sudan. Iran’s neighbors, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, are listed as Level 2, meaning there’s increased risk, but not a hard “do not fly” airspace prohibition.
Sometimes airlines can route flights around restricted areas (in the case of the Middle East, typically either north through Central Asia or south via Egypt and the Arabian Peninsula). Those detours can add significant time to already lengthy flights.
A journey that would typically follow a relatively direct path across the Middle East might now arc thousands of miles around the region. Other times, airlines may simply choose to cancel flights entirely. Arnot said that decision often comes down to a combination of factors, including the aircraft’s range, the availability of suitable diversion airports, and the possibility that a plane, its crew, and its passengers could end up stranded far from the airline’s operational base.
And adjusting airline schedules in response to a geopolitical crisis isn’t as simple as adding new flights.
“The airlines are hard-pressed to change their schedules on the fly,” Arnot said. “Their crews, their airplanes, and ticket sales are set long in advance of flying. People have booked flights for March 2026 back in June and July 2025. So the airlines can’t just magically add new flights to address demand. They simply don’t have the aircraft to do it.”
How the disruption could affect travelers worldwide
Even travelers who aren’t flying anywhere near the Middle East could feel the effects of the current conflict.
Because so many long-haul journeys normally connect through Gulf hubs, disruptions there can push travelers onto alternative routes across other airline networks.
Arnot offered an example: A traveler flying from Dallas to Bangalore might normally connect through the Middle East. But if those routes are unavailable—or already full—they may instead connect through multiple other cities.
“You’ll connect in Chicago, then Montreal, then London, then Delhi, and then connect to Bangalore,” he said, adding that it means more passengers competing for seats across many segments of the global network.
“So if you’re simply a leisure traveler wanting to go from Chicago to Montreal for the weekend, you’re going to pay more because the demand will be ever so slightly higher,” Arnot said.
That shift is already reshaping where—and how—people fly. With traditional one-stop itineraries through the Gulf unavailable, airlines are pushing more traffic onto alternative pathways via Europe and Asia, including routes through Central Asia or hubs such as Tokyo and Singapore. As a result, availability has shrunk and prices have climbed—dramatically, in some cases. Airfares on key Asia-Europe routes have spiked, with some reports showing tickets selling out for days or going up far above their usual cost.
Fuel prices are further compounding the issue. Airlines flying longer detours to avoid restricted airspace are burning significantly more fuel, at a moment when jet-fuel prices have already surged due to instability in the region. The combination of longer routes plus higher fuel prices is pushing airlines to raise fares globally; it’s one of the biggest factors airlines consider when they decide whether to go around no-fly zones or cancel the flight, says Henry Harteveldt, president and airline industry analyst with Atmosphere Research Group.
“Depending on the route and the additional fuel required to operate that, there may be a weight penalty that causes the airline to reduce the number of passengers on board, which may result in lost revenue,” Harteveldt said. “If the additional flying is too long and goes beyond the plane’s maximum range, the aircraft may be required to make a refueling stop that adds even more time and, depending on how long each flight sector lasts, may require an additional crew.”
There’s also a downstream effect on airline networks themselves. Carriers are starting to trim less-profitable routes and reduce frequencies to offset rising costs, which tightens supply and makes it harder to find convenient itineraries.
In practical terms, that means travelers may see longer travel times, fewer flight options, and higher prices—not only for long-haul international trips, but also for short-haul routes that are now competing for aircraft, crew members, and seats in an increasingly strained global system.
When things might return to normal
How quickly airline schedules stabilize after a disruption largely depends on when the underlying crisis is resolved.
“In the case of a major storm, airlines are back up and running to normal capacity within a few days,” Arnot said. “For a major conflict, if the conflict is truly ‘over’—however that is defined—they will be back up and running within days.”
But that depends on when and how airlines will determine it is safe to fly through and over the region.
“The airlines need to make a safety assessment of their operations: the airports they use, the diversion points en route in case of an in-flight emergency, the route itself, the landing conditions, and ultimately anything that could impact the safety and security of their customers and crew,” Arnot said.
One of the biggest variables now is the threat of drones, which aviation authorities and pilots alike say is becoming an increasingly serious risk.
In recent weeks alone, drone activity has directly disrupted commercial aviation. A drone strike near DXB on March 16 sparked a fire and temporarily shut down operations. Drones can target infrastructure like fuel depots and terminals and they can pose a direct hazard to aircraft.
Until safety is more assured, airlines are likely to continue adjusting routes and schedules in real time. For travelers, that may mean longer flight times, unexpected connections, or occasional cancellations—even on trips that never come close to the Middle East.
