War in the Middle East, inflation, exploding fuel prices, scary viral outbreaks, and geopolitical tensions. Just one of those recent headlines on its own might be enough to make summer travelers nervous. But travel advisors and industry officials say that while some are adjusting plans, this summer travel season is so far looking surprisingly, well, normal.
That could quickly change, of course, particularly if the fragile ceasefire in Iran crumbles or the Ebola or hantavirus outbreaks spread.
But as the long Memorial Day weekend kicks off the unofficial start of summer, AAA is predicting a record 45 million Americans will travel more than 50 miles from home, despite near record gas prices. The domestic travel forecast is slightly higher than last year, with 39.1 million people expected to travel by car (compared to 39 million in 2025) and 3.66 million expected to fly (compared to 3.65 million in 2025).
And although airfares are up nearly 25 percent since the start of the Iran war, AAA reported that most fliers had purchased summer flights before the conflict started and blocked off oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
On the international travel front, travel agents and tour operators said that while they have had some people call with questions or concerns about safety, travelers aren’t canceling their plans. Some, however, are making adjustments.
“We have seen Europe tour bookings soften while North America has picked up,” said Steve Born, chief marketing officer for the Globus family of brands, which operates international and domestic land tours through the Globus and Cosmos brands and river cruises in Europe and Asia with Avalon Waterways. “So yes, some travelers are making different choices about where they go. But they’re still going.”
Data from the aviation analytics firm Cirium shows summer bookings from the USA to Europe are down 6.5 percent from the same time last year, but a firm spokesman notes that is an improvement from the double-digit drops Cirium reported in the early days of the Iran war. With the high fuel costs, airlines are consolidating flights, so travelers can expect planes to be as crowded as ever.
Trends in luxury travel
The one area that so far seems unaffected is high-end travel.
“Luxury travel tends to behave differently, with less volatility due to price or geopolitical situations,” said Misty Ewing Belles, vice president of global public relations for Virtuoso, a consortium of luxury travel agencies. “When we look at summer travel, June to August, Virtuoso’s bookings are up 22 percent year-over-year, with sales up 34 percent.”
Beth Sherer, vice president of global product strategy for Abercrombie & Kent, agreed that high-end travel “remains very resilient.”
“In Europe, we are seeing interest shift toward more in-depth travel, including experiences that go beyond the traditional highlights,” said Sherer. “Scotland and the U.K. are especially popular, including journeys tied to iconic events like the Military Tattoo. And in Asia, Japan continues to be one of the world’s most sought-after destinations, while South Korea is generating growing interest for its blend of history, cuisine, and pop culture.”
So far, Ewing Belles said luxury advisors aren’t reporting any cancellations in response to the outbreak of Ebola in East Africa or the hantavirus cases on an expedition ship in South America. Indeed, Sherer said African safaris remain popular, and Egypt demand is strong.
Travel agents who specialize in cruising say they haven’t seen an impact from the hantavirus.
“So far it’s business as usual,” said Suzi Schreiner, owner of bespoke agency Azure Blue Vacations. “ I primarily book Europe and my clients are traveling as planned. No cancellations or hesitations.”
While the summer is looking as busy as ever, that could be in large part because most travel was booked before airfares started climbing with the price of oil.
Last-minute summer travel ideas
So where can last-minute travelers go without breaking the bank?
“Alaska still has availability,” said Craig Pavlus, founder and CEO of Pavlus Travel. “There’s a lot of capacity and there’s some very good pricing. And the airfare is not that bad, nor the travel time from most domestic cities.”
Camille Cutrone, president and co-owner of Vista Travel Consultants, said a good deal for Europe is cruising because many lines have prepurchased bulk airline tickets, enabling them to offer free or greatly reduced airfare.
“AmaWaterways just launched a $599 air promotion that is helping them sell [river] cruises right and left,” said Cutrone.
For anyone concerned about political tensions, Cutrone says she recommends destinations like Lake Como and Austria, which have always been very safe.
Barring dramatic changes in the months ahead, the story of summer travel may end up being the lack of inbound travelers to the United States. Bookings from Europe continue to drop, down 6.8 percent this summer compared to last and down 16 percent overall this year from 2025.
“I think the biggest thing which will unfold over the course of the summer is that the World Cup is going to end up being a non-event [in the U.S.],” said Chris Lopinto, CEO of seats.aero, a search engine for awards travel.
Lopinto added, “Everyone thought that there was going to be this huge boom for tourism. But hoteliers are reporting that bookings are not where they thought they would be. There’s a lot of cancellations. People don’t want to come here for various reasons. It’s too expensive, they’re not getting their tourist visa in time, all sorts of stuff like that. So it’s a perfect storm of things that are preventing what should otherwise be the free flow, in essence, of travel.”
One silver lining: that could open up some last-minute World Cup travel opportunities.
