The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on Wednesday announced an unprecedented directive: beginning Friday, November 7, air traffic in 40 U.S. airports will need to be reduced by up to 10 percent, according to the federal agency.
The move, affecting hubs from Atlanta to Chicago, Denver to Los Angeles, New York to Washington, D.C., comes in response to what is now the longest government shutdown in history, at 37 days. The shutdown has forced tens of thousands of essential aviation workers—in particular air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents—to continue working largely without pay, resulting in growing fatigue and staffing shortfalls.
“I’m not aware, in my 35-year history in the aviation market, where we’ve had a situation where we’re taking these kinds of measures,” FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said at a news conference on Wednesday.
To start, 4 percent of flights will be canceled beginning November 7, ramping up to 10 percent the following week. On any given day, the FAA directs more than 44,000 flights, meaning more than 4,000 flights could be affected each day.
Travelers can expect cascading disruptions, including mounting delays, fewer rebooking options, and crowded gates—especially as the start of the Thanksgiving travel period looms.
“With so much unknown at the moment, it can definitely cause concern for travelers,” said Katy Nastro, a travel expert at Going, a flight-deals app and newsletter. She added that if the shutdown continues and the flight cuts are indeed carried out, “this is likely to be one of the biggest disruptions in aviation history.”
Should I cancel my flight?
Brett Snyder, CEO of Cranky Concierge, a company that specializes in urgent air travel assistance, said he wouldn’t recommend that travelers preemptively cancel their flights.
“The reality is that in the next couple of weeks, airlines are not overly full,” Snyder explained. “The pre-Thanksgiving period is usually quiet, so when the flight cancellations are pushed out, there should be room to re-accommodate most people on other flights.”
He added that if travelers’ original flights are among those canceled by the airlines, then they can decide to continue with their travel plans or not based on whether the new options work for them.
“The bigger question is what will happen if the shutdown extends into Thanksgiving, because that’s when flights are very full, and there will be more pain,” Snyder said, adding, “Fortunately, I’ve seen [several airlines] offer anyone the ability to cancel without penalty, regardless of the fare rules. So if people are truly over-stressed and don’t want to deal with this, the option is there.”
Nastro noted that since canceling plans is the only way to completely avoid disruptions, people who can be flexible with their travel plans should consider pushing their trip to a later date.
Check to see if your airline is offering a rebooking fee waiver
If your plans are flexible or you don’t want to deal with the headache of possible delays or cancellations, check to see what your airline is offering in terms of rebooking options. Already, all of the major U.S. carriers, including American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines, are offering flexible rebooking and fee waivers, encouraging fliers to reschedule travel altogether.
Look into backup flights
Travelers who can’t or don’t won’t to change their travel plans might consider a backup plan.
“Short-haul, regional flights will likely be on the chopping block for airlines, so those of us with any quick hops may want to consider a flight on another carrier as a backup plan,” Nastro said.
Book your backup for different airlines and airports—and use miles
Jesse Neugarten, founder and CEO of deal-tracking service Dollar Flight Club, said, “If you live near multiple airports, hedge your bets. For example, in New York, book your main trip out of JFK and hold a backup award ticket out of Newark for miles since you can cancel it for free if everything runs smoothly. That flexibility gives you options if one airport faces staffing or weather issues.”
“And do be sure you’re booking on two different airlines, or else the ‘duplicate bookings’ might get canceled by the carrier,” says Gary Leff, publisher of the View from the Wing, a travel blog.
Leff also suggests using miles to book a backup.
“There’s no charge to cancel and redeposit the points,” Leff says. “If your first flight takes off, cancel the award ticket before the flight’s departure time. If that first flight cancels or is significantly delayed, you should be able to get a refund and just use the award [travel].”
It’s also a good idea to book a backup ticket on an airline you’re likely to fly on in the future so you don’t lose the credit, which is typically good for one year only.
What if I haven’t purchased my flight yet?
If you haven’t yet booked your tickets, Tiffany Funk, a travel expert and cofounder of point.me, recommended that “your best bets are to add some padding—plan to travel at least a day or two before you actually need to be there—and to book a flight earlier in the morning or later at night, when fewer flights are scheduled to begin with.”
Both Leff and Nastro noted that now is not the time to be booking a basic economy fare, as those tickets tend to carry change fees and offer little to no flexibility. While some airlines are offering change-fee waivers, they may not be in place through the date you are looking to travel on.
How do I know if my flight will be canceled?
If you have an upcoming departure from one of the 40 high-volume airports that will be affected, anticipate possible changes. Be sure to keep an eye on your airline’s app and website for status updates on your flight.
It’s also important to ensure your phone number and email are up to date in the airline’s system so it can notify you via text or email of any changes or cancellations. Similarly, if you booked with a travel agency, make sure the airline has your contact information, not just your advisor’s. The faster you know your flight has been affected, the better chance you have of rebooking—before everyone else does.
As to exactly what flights will be most affected remains to be seen.
“It’s important to know this situation is in active flux,” said Funk. “Communication from the FAA to airlines has not been super clear, and the current plan is poorly conceived and is thus unlikely to have the stated impact on the main air traffic control pressure points. Consumers should expect things to change as airlines get more information and start implementing and adjusting response plans.”
Added Nastro, “Regional flights and less full flights are [the ones that will be] on the chopping block. Do yourself a favor and check your seat map if heading out on a short-haul flight (under two hours). While there is no guarantee your flight will get canceled yet, it’s a small gauge to plan for the worst.”
Already, American and United have said that their long-haul international flights will not be affected, but other airlines may be forced to reduce some of those routes.
“Hub-to-hub flights and international flights are least likely to be affected if you’re in a large city, with lots of connectivity,” said Funk. On major domestic and international routes, “there’s a realistic chance of your airline being able to accommodate you on another flight, even if it’s delayed by a day or requires an extra connection.”
That being said, the wider reduction could create knock-on effects, including the need to reroute flights, cascading delays, longer connection times, or tighter buffers.
Stay tuned to FAA and DOT announcements and updates from your airline.
Know your rights if your flight is canceled
Because airlines anticipate myriad disruptions, many are waiving change and cancellation fees, even for basic economy, during this period.
If your flight is canceled or materially delayed (more than three hours) because of this capacity cut, you should be eligible for:
- A rebooking on the same carrier (or partner airline) for no extra charge.
- A full refund in the original form of payment if the airline cannot offer a comparable alternative. It’s worth noting that you do not need to accept a voucher (unless, for some reason, you want to, such as it’s worth more than the original fare)—airlines are required to refund you. This also applies to nonrefundable and basic economy tickets.
- Possibly accommodation, meals, or extra compensation if the delay is extensive (although, considering that these delays aren’t the airlines’ fault, they are less likely to offer this additional assistance, as they are not required to do so).
