By Nicole Solis March 31st, 2010 1:31 pm |

South Africa's Soccer City
With the 2010 World Cup merely months away, soccer fever is spreading around the globe faster than H1N1. Not even data wonks, sports economists, and infographic editors at travel magazines are immune.
Most number crunchers focus on actual performance. Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight and Baseball Prospectus, developed the sabermetrically delicious Soccer Power Index on ESPN.com. Taking a different angle on performance, Deloitte releases its Annual Review of Football Finance, examining player salaries, profitability, and which teams in the European football federation get the most butts in stadium seats.
None of these approaches felt quite right for Afar. For the Curious Planet department in our May/June 2010 issue, we wanted to look at how the culture of a country helps or hinders its chances at winning the World Cup. But who studies that?
Michael A. Leeds and Eva Marikova Leeds, that’s who. A husband-and-wife economist team, the Professors Leeds cowrote “International Soccer Success and National Institutions,” published in March 2007, a fascinating and thorough paper that examined how 28 factors—including GDP, income, whether a country had hosted a World Cup, oil exports, and colonial heritage—affected a national soccer team’s performance (as measured by its FIFA points).
Michael Leeds, a labor economist by trade who literally wrote the book The Economics of Sports, was kind enough to rerun the calculations in their model, based on updated data that we supplied, just for our piece.
A quick disclaimer: We took some editorial liberties with their data. Most obviously, we narrowed their 28 factors and 189 countries down to 5 factors and 8 countries for our infographic, presenting only a snapshot of their impressive research. Also, although we present the information in a cheeky “these factors will help you win the World Cup” approach (implying causation), the Leeds’ paper was far more academically rigorous.
Their findings were pretty amazing. In this post, I’m going to give more detail on the five factors we included in the infographic, using the results they found in 2007. If you geek out on this stuff, or if you want to see what effect other factors had, I highly recommend reading the whole paper.
1. Wealthy democracies do better in soccer.
In Franklin Foer’s article “How Governments Nurture Soccer,” The New Republic editor and soccer enthusiast asserts that social democracies are the World Cup-winningest type of government (“fascism beats communism; military junta beats fascism; social democracy beats military junta”).
For the Leeds paper, OECD member status was used as a proxy for “social democracies.” Here were their findings:
- OECD member status increases a team’s FIFA points by 22 percent (Here, as with all the comparisons, the increase is compared to a hypothetical country that is otherwise equal in the other factors)
- A Communist government increases a national team’s points by 16 percent
- Formerly communist countries, such as Slovakia, that are now OECD members enjoy the benefits of both
Source: OECD member nations.
2. Countries with fewer civil liberties and more limited political freedom perform better in international soccer competitions.
To take a closer look at the effect of political regime on soccer performance, the Leeds paper also used Freedom House’s combined average rating (CAR), based on its Freedom of the World survey. According to the site: “The survey measures freedom—the opportunity to act spontaneously in a variety of fields outside the control of the government and other centers of potential domination—according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties.”
Here’s what the Leeds paper found:
- An additional point on the CAR scale raises a country’s FIFA points by 1 percent. (Note: Countries with higher CAR scores have fewer political rights and civil liberties, or as we described it in the infographic, they are more oppressive.)
We’re not sure why this is, but as Foer wrote, explaining why fascist countries are better in futbol, “Who wants to disappoint a leader who might break your legs and imprison your grandmother?” Fear is a powerful motivator.
Source: Freedom House Combined Average Rating.
3. A country’s colonial heritage can have a big effect—either positive or negative—on soccer performance.
Did colonizing powers pass on their love of soccer to their colonies? To test this, Professors Leeds looked at countries that gained their independence after 1900. Why that year? In the 1800s, soccer was played mostly in the British Isles: England, Scotland, Wales, Ireland. But around 1900, other countries began taking up the sport. Their theory is that if a country—such as most of those in Latin America—obtained independence before 1900, they can take full credit for their achievements on the pitch. The former colonial power has nothing to do with it.
Still, Spanish and French colonies benefit the most, soccer-wise, from their heritage:
- Spanish heritage raises points by 43 percent
- French heritage raises points by 22 percent
- British heritage raises points by 7 percent
- Portguese heritage lowers points by 61 percent
- Netherlands heritage lowers points by 72 percent
4. Oil-producing nations tend to do better than their non-oil-producing peers in soccer.
No oil-producing nation has ever won the World Cup. Foer hypothesizes that these countries are cursed by the “paradox of plenty,” in which a country gets used to the inflow of wealth and gets lazy. “On the pitch,” Foer writes, “these countries lack a winning temperament and an innovative mindset.”
However, the Leeds paper found that, just because no oil-rich country has won a World Cup, countries that earn 10 percent or more of GDP from oil exports do perform better than other, similar countries.
- Oil-exporting raises points by 25 percent
As an aside, OPEC member Qatar applied the “guest laborer” concept that works so well in construction and other industries to soccer and brought in foreign players to staff the Qatari national soccer team. FIFA responded by tightening the rules about nationality.
Source: Ross, Michael L., “Does Oil Hinder Democracy?” World Politics.
5. Have club teams that compete in your federation’s quarterfinals.
Club teams are basically league teams. Loosely speaking, what the Pittsburgh Penguins are to hockey, Real Madrid is to soccer. Club teams play against other club teams within national or continental leagues. Just as the Penguins might play against the Philadelphia Flyers, Detroit Red Wings, and other teams in the NHL, Real Madrid plays against Barcelona F.C., Villareal, and other Spanish teams in La Liga.
It seems obvious that a successful club team would make for a strong national team, but often, the best club teams’ rosters are made up of international players. For example, Real Madrid employed both English striker and former team captain David Beckham, as well as French midfielder and headbutter Zinedine Zidane, who helped France get to the 2006 World Cup finals. (Not unlike how Penguin Sidney Crosby helped his homeland of Canada bring home Olympic ice hockey gold this year in Vancouver.)
A country can therefore export its best players to more competitive leagues, allowing them to hone their skills on someone else’s dime (and pitch) then using those skills to nab a World Cup for their home country’s national team. But the Leeds research found that the country’s passion for the sport and soccer infrastructure might be a bigger factor than the skills of individual players: “Countries with stronger club teams have the desire and resources to create a strong national team as well.”
The effect, however, varies by federation. For each team that qualifies for its federation’s quarterfinals, the mational team’s points increase by the following amounts:
- Europe (UEFA): 13.43 percent
- Africa (CAF): 45.75 percent
- Asia (AFC): 28.26 percent
- Oceania (OFC): 91.07 percent
- North America (CONCACAF): 24.77 percent
- South America (CONMEBOL): 17.81 percent
Source: FIFA.
Many thanks to Michael Leeds for his patient explanations, willingness to rerun all his calculations, and enthusiasm for and support of our project. Also thanks to both Leeds and Eva Marikova Leeds for coming up with the brilliant idea for the paper in the first place.
If you’d like to geek out even more, I recommend these for further reading:
Photo of Soccer City by Shine 2010. CC 2.0.
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